According to the National Statistics Institute, the activity will accelerate, enabling a significant reduction in the unemployment rate. It would increase from 9.9% end of 2015 to 9.5% end of 2016 …
(Boursier.com) – The National Statistics Institute is more optimistic than the government about the future of the French economy … It is indeed a growth of 1.6% this year, against 1.5% expected by Bercy and after + 1.2% in 2015, according to its monthly report unveiled Thursday .. .
“This acceleration would come from market services and construction,” it said in the note. The INSEE warns that its forecast assumes a continuation of Britain within the EU …
The experts observe indeed a thaw in the building sector with the recovery in new home sales. According to official data, in the three months to April, the number of building permits issued for new housing has indeed jumped 10% over the same period last year. In services, business leaders point to an improving business climate.
Solid Investments and consumption …
According to INSEE, even if the investment businesses will falter compared to previous months, it will remain strong in 2016. the Institute even predicted “unprecedented growth” since 2007. he will thus grow at a rate of + 0.5% to + 0.6% per quarter in the second half, an increase of 4.7% over the full year, after 2.7% in 2015. companies have benefited in particular loads declines mechanisms such as the IECC and back oil prices.
in terms of consumption, the institute expects a stabilization in 2016 (+ 1.6% after + 1.5%) despite the strong growth recorded in the first quarter (+ 1%, the most since 2006). This acceleration was mainly due to a catch-up effect. “The dissipation of these effects lead to a net shift in consumption in the second quarter (+ 0.2%) without the slowdown is widespread.”
For example, “hosting -Catering “should enjoy the economic benefits of the football Euro, currently taking place in France and will end on July 10.
Decline in unemployment, finally!
sign of economic improvement, the unemployment rate should finally recede. It would fall to 9.5% of the workforce end of 2016 (9.8% all France), against 9.9% in France in 2015 and 9.7% in late 2012. “The expected increase in the employment would be higher than that of the workforce, and the number of unemployed would decrease again, “said INSEE, with 210,000 jobs created over the year.
in addition, the Institute think training plan for unemployed unveiled earlier this year contribute to the decline in unemployment up to 0.1 points. Recall that François Hollande has pledged not to stand in the presidential election of 2017, it does not get lower unemployment by the end of his term …
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