The Insee predicts an acceleration of growth and falling unemployment in 2016 in France, an encouraging scenario that does, however, take into account the assumption of Brexit.
After rising 1.2% in 2015, gross domestic product (GDP) should grow 1.6% in 2016, says in its new monthly report the Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques.
INSEE has nevertheless lowered its forecast for the second quarter at + 0.3% against + 0.4% anticipated thus far, noting that manufacturing should be “more sluggish than expected”, “in mainly because of social movements affecting the refineries. “
This result should not however prevent the economic recovery to continue, after a first quarter in particular tonic, with an increase of 0.6% GDP. Growth expected to stand at 0.3% in the third quarter and + 0.4% in the fourth, according to the National Statistics Institute.
With such figures, the unemployment rate should fall to 0.4 by the end of 2016, to stand at 9.5% of the workforce in France and 9.8% including overseas territories , marking an unprecedented decline since 2007.
This decrease would result from acceleration of employees job creation in the market sector (139,000 jobs), driven in particular by the Tax Credit competitiveness employment (CICE), the Pact of responsibility and the recent emergency plan for employment.
For the government, the forecast remains for the time set at 1.5% growth in 2016, this figure is also welcome.
“These forecasts lead us to continue to implement our business to support policies, employment and purchasing power,” responded Finance Minister Michel Sapin said in a statement.
“The nature of this growth is changing: the stimulus were mainly external in 2015, in 2016 the springs of growth are mostly internal, especially because the recovery in activity is spreading to employment, and therefore it self-sustaining, “said Vladimir Passeron, head of the economy department at INSEE, at a press conference.
At the heart of the dynamic activity Figure business investment, which is expected to increase 4.7% in 2016, a level “unprecedented since 2007″.
The increase was helped by favorable demand outlook, accommodative monetary policy and the recovery rate margin businesses, said Dorian Roucher, head of the division “cyclical synthesis”.
As regards household consumption, which rebounded sharply in the first quarter (+ 1%), driven mainly by spending on heating and ticket purchases for the Euro 2016 football, should increase by 1.6% total for the year, after 1.5% last year.
Their purchasing power should continue to grow at a “steady pace” (+ 1.7% after + 1.6% in 2015), despite the slight rise in inflation, expected at 0.7% in late December due to the rise in oil prices.
“The engine of French growth is not external”, welcomed Thursday evening Michel Sapin, on the sidelines of a meeting of finance ministers of the euro area in Luxembourg, which says wait “a prolonged decline (unemployment) throughout the year. “
However, foreign trade should significantly curb the activity, contributing negatively to growth of 0.7 percentage point of GDP.
“For three quarters, exports marked time with the gradual dissipation of the effects of the decline of the euro and continued weakness in demand from emerging countries,” said Mr. Roucher. Even if they should resume in the second quarter with delivery contracts with the shipyards, they should then again nosedive, while imports will in turn supported.
INSEE forecasts, however, are subject to strong fluctuations, including the leap of faith that represent an output of the United Kingdom of the European Union (EU). A scenario far from implausible, given the latest polls published by the British press.
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