The Brexit should not bring down French growth in 2016 – Le Figaro

According to the governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau output EU UK does not represent a threat to growth, expected at 1.4%.

the Brexit should not stop the growth of the French economy, at least this year, said the Bank of France. Interviewed on France Inter on Saturday, the governor of the institution, François Villeroy de Galhau was reassuring about the impact of an output of the United Kingdom of the European Union on our economy. “There is not today, if we look at the French economy, threat of relapse in the coming quarters,” he says. In June, the Bank of France had anticipated a 1.4% growth for 2016. “Today I can confirm this forecast even after Brexit” said François Villeroy de Galhau.

The output of the EU in the UK “is primarily a matter for the UK economy,” which “potentially loses 450 million clients”, or the European market. The drop four times stronger than the pound against the euro after giving him a “small scale respective consequences for the UK and Europe.

The earthquake Europe represents the Brexit intervenes in effect at the time the French economy registered a modest recovery. Before the British shock, statistics began to relay the “feeling better” hammered by Francois Hollande. On June 16, INSEE has revised upwards its growth forecast for 2016 to 1.6%, after 1.2% in 2015. This acceleration was to enable the unemployment fall by 0.4 point by the end of the year, to 9.5% of the active population

“the nature of this growth changes. external stimuli were mostly in 2015, in 2016 the springs of growth are especially internal, partly because the recovery in activity is spreading to employment, and that therefore it is self-sustaining, “explained last week Vladimir Passeron, head of the economy department at INSEE. Driven by the pact of responsibility and CICE, business investment had to know a “novel” leap of 4.7% this year, while the purchasing power of households would also increase.

But if this recovery scenario is not invalidated in the short term, it might be beyond 2016. The credit insurer Euler Hermes had warned even before such an event Brexit could amputate French exports of € 2.4 billion or 3.2 billion in the case of a black scenario in the absence of a quick free-trade agreement with the United Kingdom. The impact of Brexit on future growth depends French indeed now exit conditions in the UK. “It is important to start this business divorce quickly,” warned François Villeroy de Galhau.