In 2016, growth will be stronger than expected at 1.6% – ladepeche.fr

The Insee predicts growth of 1.6% in 2016 in France, more than expected. The strong recovery in business investment remains the main explanation.

The economy will recover tricolor colors this year. In any case what is provided by INSEE that growth should reach 1.6% in 2016. This is 0.4 percentage points more than in 2015.

The product gross domestic Product (GDP) should increase in French a “moderate pace” in the second half, rising 0.3% in the third quarter and 0.4% in the fourth anticipates INSEE in its monthly report published yesterday.

This prospective does, however, take into account the assumption of Brexit that in several European and global forecasts agencies cost the Old continent several tenths of growth points. According to INSEE analysts, the nature of this growth is changing. While the stimulus were mainly external in 2015 (falling energy prices, interest rates at the lowest …), in 2016 the springs of growth are mostly internal. This is essentially the recovery of business activity which diffuses employment. “As a result, growth is self-sustaining,” said Vladimir Passeron, head of the environment department.

Business investment reboots

This forecast of 1 , 6% above the forecast of the government, which for the time table on 1.5% growth for the full year.

According to the statistical Institute, “corporate investment would be the main factor of acceleration of the French activity “, increasing by 4.7% in 2016, a level” unprecedented since 2007 “.

This increase is favored by demand prospects and conditions favorable financing and the recovery rate margin businesses. The lightening loads of consecutive businesses including credit tax competitiveness employment (CICE) is starting to bear its effects on the real economy.

Meanwhile, consumer spending, which rebounded sharply in first quarter (+ 1%), driven mainly by spending on heating and ticket purchases for the Euro 2016 football should continue to grow by 1.6% in total over the year, after + 1.5% last year. Their purchasing power should continue to grow at a “steady pace” (+ 1.7% after + 1.6% in 2015), despite the slight rise in inflation, expected at 0.7% in late December because of the slight rise in oil prices.

---

exports to the sentence

If domestic demand restarts, foreign trade should significantly curb activity in 2016. It should even negative contribution to growth of 0.7 percentage point of GDP. “For three quarters, exports marked time with the gradual dissipation of the effects of the decline of the euro and continued weakness in demand from emerging countries,” according to Insee.