The miscalculations of the Government on premium business – L’Express

“A challenge met with efficiency,” comments National Family Allowances Fund (CNAF). The premium business starts with a bang, with April 20, 2.3 million households receiving the device, representing more than 3.8 million people, including children. The possibility until late March of retroactively accumulate in the first three months of the year was particularly boosted enrollment. “It was madness,” testifies to Les Echos Jean-Louis Deroussen, Director of CNAF.

The business daily now stands at 4.5 billion cost of this social benefit that replaces since 1 January RSA-activity and employment bonus. While in the 2016 budget are allocated to it for the time that the 4 billion that were previously planned for the two former measures. Either the government was mistaken about the number of potential beneficiaries, or he underestimated the rate of use of the device.

An appeal rate stronger than expected

The premium is for employees who earn less than 1,500 euros a month, students and apprentices. From 18 years. Unlike previous devices did not reach the public, “a million young people” are eligible, the government says in a statement dating from the end of April, which also amounts to 5.6 million the number of potential beneficiaries. A priori, it is not on that side to look for the error.

“This is the rate of use” slice for L’Express economist Henri Sterdyniak OFCE. “The new device is less stigmatizing and CAF did his job.” By proposing, as early as December 2015, a simulator to calculate its rights and touting a device “paperless”, which can be 95% online, CAF has promoted and facilitated the process. The government had based its first estimates on an application rate of 50% for the premium. It seems to be exceeded.

“A problem at one billion”

Skid budget or not? At Bercy, it is stated in L’Express that it is too early to establish the diagnosis. Marisol Touraine has promised that new funds would be available, and the CNAF negotiated upward its budget, explain Les Echos . He will still have to have deep pockets. “This is a problem at one billion this year, two billion next year,” said Henri Sterdyniak. “Appeal rate can reach 85% or 90%, as housing benefit.” If the ruthless efficiency of the device is verified, Francois Hollande may wonder if it still has interest in lowering taxes for the poorest households.