This is the great yoyo with the unemployment figures. After a significant decline in January (27,000), it is rising again in February with over 38,900 job seekers in France entirely. Worse, this is the largest increase since January 2013. A cold shower for Francois Hollande who conditioned his political fate to a reversal of the unemployment curve.
This fever is due “in very much by the rocker into class a already registered in the employment center but exercised (class B and C) in previous months, was quick to declare Myriam El Khomri, the Minister of Labour. in total, enrollment in classes a, B and C only increased by 3,100 on a month, 0.1 “
Another reason. the decline in January was due largely to a unusually high number of persons who have not updated their situation and that came out of the employment center of radars. Logically, those who had been unsubscribed have since taken steps to reintegrate job seekers lists. This phenomenon echoes the “SFR bug” in July 2013 when 20,000 unemployed did not receive SMS from the operator asking them to update their status.
Light at the end of the tunnel
Fire Lake or not to François Hollande? Certainly, the number of unemployed has never declined for two consecutive months since February 2008. An eternity in short … But the President has practical reasons for optimism. According to the last note of conditions INSEE, this time for sure. Finally, the curve will be reversed in the next six months
It has already begun to influence the final quarter of 2015 with a decrease in the number of job seekers 47,000, again according to the statistics institute. These figures contradict those of the Ministry of Labour but which confirm a study UNEDIC announcing last fall a lasting reduction in 2016 the number of job seekers.
This trend will continue because the French engine job off again: after creating 82,000 positions in 2015 – a great first since 2011 – the market sector will increase its workforce of 37,000 employees in the first six months of 2016, according to INSEE. As a result, unemployment will fall to 10.2% of the entire workforce end of 2016. In France, it should fall to 10%.
Mistral Liberal winner?
one caveat though: this reflux represent “only” 24,000 unemployed less on a workforce of 3.85 million jobseekers registered in category A. Nothing to brag … Still, this note of Insee is a relief for President who finally find arguments to validate its policy “pro-business”, set up in 2014 to address the competitiveness of our businesses.
a liberal turn that fractured his majority two and disappointed many of his constituents. But beginning has borne fruit: end of 2015, the margin of the companies reached 31.4%, after an increase of 1.8 points over one year, “the largest increase since 1986″. An evolution linked to the fall in oil prices but also to the IECC, the competitive employment tax credit (17 billion last year) and lower employer costs, said INSEE.
in short, these results are good news for the president who now sees light at the end of the tunnel after three and a half years of poor economic results. It remains to convince his own camp to continue reforms to boost growth by voting Labour law …
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