INSEE foresees a slight decline in unemployment in H1 – The Point

The Insee expects a slight decline in the unemployment rate, which happen in H1 under the symbolic 10% in France, despite a slowdown in job creation, in its monthly report published Thursday . According to the National Statistics Institute, the indicator should fall back in the first quarter, to 9.9% of the workforce (- 0.1) and remain at that level in the second quarter. In all France, the rate would drop to 10.2% in the first quarter (- 0.1 pt), then stabilize. The unemployment rate, 10% in France late 2015, had last year its first decline since 2010. But, as a trend, unemployment is “virtually stabilized since the summer of 2014″, noted INSEE. Its indicator, the only internationally recognized, rest against the current of one of employment center that continued to see unemployment climb in 2015. The operator lived 3.58 million unemployed by year-end, up 2.5% on the year.

for INSEE, the slight decline expected in the first half is explained by an increase in employment (+ 63,000 jobs) higher than that of the workforce (+ 50,000). But these figures hiding a slight slowdown in net job creations, despite an acceleration in growth (0.4% per quarter). The non-agricultural market sector is expected to create 37,000 salaried jobs in H1, after 45,000 in the second half 2015. “The increasing burden of tax competitiveness-employment credit (CICE) is over” and new measures of accountability pact which will take effect April 1, will have “limited impact” because “not targeted on low wages,” said INSEE.

the private employment would however be supported by the plan emergency announced in January, particularly in the premium 4 000 euros given to SMEs that employ sustainable contract for low-skilled workers. The administration has already received more than 60 000 applications. The slowdown would also affect the non-profit sector, which would create 11,000 jobs in H1, after 16 000 end of 2015. Main reason: the many purposes of assisted contracts. Including the self-employed and agricultural workers, total employment would still “dynamic”, with 63,000 new positions. If these creations would be enough to absorb the increase in the workforce, they would remain in mid-2016, too few to significantly reverse the unemployment curve. President Francois Hollande has conditioned his possible candidacy in 2017 to a second term decline “credible” in unemployment in 2016.