Thursday, August 18, 2016

Behind the fall in unemployment, the art of statistical politicization – Le Figaro

FIGAROVOX / ANALYSIS – Unemployment in mainland France fell below the symbolic 10%, according to INSEE. Eric Verhaeghe, the government has statistics largesse of a less independent than job center.


Eric Verhaeghe is Tripalio founder of a start-up of the union. This former student of ENA held positions in the managerial world and assumed various joint mandates. He was also director of social security. His latest book, Does not help you and the state will help you , was released on January 25 by Editions du Rocher. Find his columns on his website.


The INSEE has caused confusion in the public communication, and even political, unemployment, announcing a record decline year on year and a return to a situation known ever since 2012. to reach this surprising figure, the statisticians of the Ministry of Economy have, as usual, used the method of calculation established by the International Labour Office (ILO) which differs substantially from the current methodology for job center, based on a clever enumeration of jobseekers registered in all their forms. This method of amplifying without asking too many questions, the famous curve inversion unemployment as job center, on a year already suggested (0.7 points Pôle Emploi).

A well-known statistical effect

Between Pôle Emploi and INSEE, there is the same difference as between the official temperature and perceived temperature.

Basically, these divergent figures are usual and ordinary raise quite a few controversies. Between statistics job center and those of the INSEE, there are in fact the same difference as between the official temperature and wind chill in the wind. INSEE gives a figure which falls largely under the book building for harmonization with European standards. Pôle Emploi gives a feeling more or less the exact phenomenon in ambient temperature.

Overall, everyone agrees that, with equal macroeconomic context, unemployment will start to decline, slower moreover that in many European countries. In case of blow in the fall, especially in the banking market, it does not go well, of course.

Are there any politicization of public statistics?

These small illegal benefits INSEE draws juicy profits is systematically protected by all successive governments.

What bothers observers do not lies in the discrepancy observed between french statistics bodies. The challenge is also preceded by statements of some ministers who do not hide their ideological preference for figures from INSEE. They are stronger, more reliable. Hear more subdued and less independent than job center

It is true that officials of INSEE, if they are deemed independent, remain nonetheless obliged the government.. The status that it concedes protects them against … ill winds untimely savings and reviews. Against all odds, INSEE also resistant to all European regulations, curbing their heels making available its data to the public, delivering the dropper and preferably so little Accessible to hinder any competition, and selling its business data. However, a European directive is clear: the data collected under the public service obligations must be reusable for free by all.

These small illegal benefits INSEE draws juicy profits is obviously systematically protected by all successive governments, especially the left, which fell month after month before the takeover this obsolete service.

These little flowers sent by the power deserve statistical references elevator.

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