And if he succeeded? At 9.9%, the unemployment rate in France is the lowest since late 2012, according to INSEE. “This may allow Francois Hollande to keep his promise before the next elections,” said the US site Bloomberg. Indeed, the reference to 2012 gives hope for the French president a favorable balance, while it has conditioned any new application to lower unemployment. Especially since INSEE did not provide a drop too fast.
In a statement, the Minister of Labour Myriam El Khomri considers that this result “confirms the gradual improvement in the economic situation.” In 2016, growth should reach 1.6% according to INSEE. On Twitter, the Prime Minister Manuel Valls salute without triumphalism “good numbers”, calling for “reinforce this dynamic.” The Elysee, for its part, remains silent.
The signal sent by INSEE statisticians who calculate quarterly unemployment rate based on ILO from a continuous survey of a panel of 100 000 people, is indeed interpreted with caution. Between the third and fourth quarter of 2012, the unemployment rate had risen above the 10% – from 9.8% to 10.1%. It is only this high point that has just been erased. In the second quarter 2012, at the inauguration of François Hollande, the rate was 9.7%.
A “discouragement effect” lowers statistics
On the other hand, INSEE noted among the components of the unemployment rate, along with an increase 0.1 points in the employment rate, an equivalent decline in the participation rate, that is to say the number of people declaring themselves in active situation of unemployment or employment. “In the fall announced today, there is a bad part,” said L’Express Eric Heyer of the OFCE. “When unemployment is falling is that the unemployed find a job or they give up looking for one. A change of 0.1 points in the employment rate and the participation rate means that the decline is due equally by the two causes. ”
Without the “discouragement effect”, the drop in unemployment would have been closer to higher employment rates, said Eric Heyer. Either of about 0.1. Among those in employment, the share of those being underemployed and partial unemployment is also rising, noted INSEE. Which puts the impact of growth on employment.
Always more registered employment center
But what matters is the trend. The number of unemployed registered at employment center in category A for June was up, like those of May. In one year, however, it was down 0.7%. The evolution measured by INSEE “is entirely consistent with that of the number of job class A registered employment center seekers”, welcomes the Ministry of Labour.
They forget that over one year, if we take into account the categories A, B and C, this number increased by 0.8%, bringing the number of applicants for employment to 5.7 million (DOM included), when INSEE counted only 2.8 million unemployed in France. In the second quarter of 2012, there were 4.6 million registered employment center (DOM included), against 2.6 million unemployed in France according to INSEE. The gap is growing, making it doubtful the hypothesis of a real decline in unemployment.
“This will not change the opinion of the French”
“The number of INSEE is the best, least manipulable, and the only one is recognized abroad, “says Eric Heyer. “His problem is that it happens every quarter late, when those fall of employment center every month. But in both cases, a decline was recorded.” If we stick to Category A, that of applicants who have been inactive during the month, the largest number indeed.
“There is an acceleration of growth, it reached 1.2% in 2015 and is expected to be around 1.4%, 1.5% in 2016. This is enough to create jobs in the private commercial sector, “said Eric Heyer. “The CICE, the pact of responsibility and subsidized jobs accelerate unemployment downward path,” he acknowledges, too. INSEE, which provided for a rate of 9.8% by year end, now expects a figure of 9.6%. “But an unemployment rate of 9.6% will not change the opinion of the French. This remains mass unemployment,” concludes economist. An analysis that reconciles employment center and INSEE.
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