Oil: Tehran-Riyadh rivalry has prevented the production of gel – Les Echos

The price of oil should severely accuse the coup that Monday morning. The major oil producers broke Sunday night in Doha without reaching agreement. While the rumor of a cap-production led by Riyadh and Moscow presaged the contrary in recent days, to the point of pushing the price per barrel of Brent to its highest since January (30%), to $ 43, this Thursday.

Las, after six hours of talks, the fifteen largest oil producers in the world (apart anyway United States, Canada, China and Norway), representing half global supply, failed to rebalance the oil market whose price has collapsed by 65% ​​since the summer of 2014. the objective was to obtain a freeze in production for six months. A collective decision between members and non members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which was unprecedented for fifteen years.

Saudi Arabia wanted to involve all OPEC

The failure of negotiations leaves today ‘ hui oil planet even more disoriented and swimming in surpluses. If a note from Bank of America presaged there some days, a short-term price of 50 dollars in case of agreement, Citigroup predicted a “severe negative impact” otherwise. Saxo Bank even predicting a return to $ 30, just above the floor, unprecedented since 2003, from 26.55 dollars in late January.

The cause of this failure? Geostrategic tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, whose traditional rivalry was exacerbated in open crisis since the execution of a Saudi Shiite leader there four months. While it had previously insisted on the exclusion of Tehran talks, Saudi has informed the meeting that she wanted all member states of the cartel associate with the decision of a gel. A precondition for the world’s largest producer and leading OPEC restrict its own production, explained last week the Deputy heir Prince Mohammed bin Salman interviewed by Bloomberg. The initial draft agreement was amended to include a new paragraph.

The OPEC production at the highest

Meanwhile, Iran, which is finally not come to Qatar, said he would not participate in gel production. Saturday, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, even assured that the country would not sign any agreement. “If Iran freezes its oil production in February, it will mean that our country can not benefit from the lifting of sanctions” , he justified. But the country has resumed exports in the last few weeks. Its production increases to the point of having already found its level late March of 2012, according to Bloomberg. The OPEC production has never been higher than today and that of Russia, third producer in the world, reached its highest level since the collapse of the USSR.

The failure of Doha may be temporary, since the minister of Qatar said he had “ more time to agree “. Without setting a date for a new meeting.

M. Jq. B and Y

.