The Brexit could “impoverish forever” UK – Le Figaro

VIDEO – The UK Treasury warning about the harmful consequences of an exit from the EU, with GDP cut by 6% in 2030

the government of David Cameron puts all its weight into the balance to alert the population of the economic risk of an exit from the country of the European Union ( “Brexit”). The Treasury published on Monday a 200-page report on the prospects that await a UK going it alone. In an article in the Times , Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, the scarecrow out: “leave the EU would amount to self-harm.”

The report estimates that 6% of GDP by 2030 the shortfall relative to maintaining the Union. It is based to reach that conclusion on a scenario “Canadian”, the most plausible by George Osborne, in which London would negotiate with the EU free trade agreement similar to the one that links the countries of North America the European bloc. To hammer home his message in households, Treasury reflects the loss of activity per household to 4,300 pounds (5,400 euros) a year.

Hypothesis pessimistic

“There would be less trade, less investment and less business. If he leaves the EU, the UK would be depleted forever. British families are poorer permanently also “stresses the Minister.

It is interesting to note that government services have chosen to adopt the worst case of developments which are largely based on the unknown. Last month, the PricewaterhouseCoopers audit firm had published a similar analysis on behalf of the British employers. His black scenario concluded on a revenue loss of 100 billion pounds, or 5.5% of GDP in 2020, slightly below the hypothesis Treasury.

Recruitment down

Supporters of Brexit cry to the “conspiracy”. According eurosceptic MP John Redwood, the pro-Europeans “always argue the negative numbers on the Brexit and never positive because it is part of their conspiracy to keep us force in the EU.” The government has adopted a deliberate strategy , dubbed “project fear”, which aims to bombard voters before the June 23 consultation alarming information on the economic impact of the leap into the unknown. Such an approach had worked during the referendum on Scottish independence in 2014. The arguments related to the economy are considered as those of last resort to persuade undecided.

The business community British begin already to feel the negative effects of uncertainty in the referendum. Real estate transactions slow, investment is outstanding and recruitment, down. Available positions in the City decreased by 21% compared to the same time last year.