60,000 fewer unemployed in March, a record – Les Echos

The figure is particularly impressive, if it is too good to be true. Employment center announced Tuesday afternoon a strong decline in unemployment in March with 60,000 registered under category A, which groups the persons who have not worked in months. Such monthly decline is even a record since September 2000. … It has massively benefited the age of 25 and even scarce, with more than 50 years. Even the long-term unemployment, rising continuously for years, took the opportunity to remain stable. Only downside, if we include the unemployed who partly worked in the month (B and C), the monthly decline was limited to 8,400. But such a switch between categories is a classic phenomenon during recovery: the unemployed to find a complete stop first short-term jobs. This is what tends to confirm the figures released on Tuesday also, by professionals in the interim, which reported a 5.9% jump in activity in March compared to March 2015.

This result is timely for Francois Hollande. For two weeks, the head of state is trying to convince the French that “I feel better. “ With this result, it can now hold up on the first quarter, an overall decline of 50,000 in the number of unemployed. Such improvement was not seen for more than five years. after the stagnation recorded in the last quarter of 2015, it comes to support the idea of ​​an improvement over time on the employment front. She also echo the figures of ACOSS, the agency collecting social security contributions, which in the first quarter 1.87 million hires returns for contracts of more than a month, a total flirting with the record in the third quarter of 2011.

Caution on interpretation

the Elysee has not however enough to shout the famous durable inversion of the curve to which Hollande has conditioned his candidacy for a new term in 2017. D first, because the erratic numbers in recent months, with a strong yo-yo effect, calls interpreted with extreme caution. Especially as, since January and the redesign of the presentation of the unemployment figures, the Ministry of Labour no longer details the inputs and outputs employment center on a monthly basis but by quarter: this makes it difficult to identify with any unusual phenomena that could explain the surprising extent of the decline, as a possible thrust administrative radiation. Interviewed by “Les Echos”, employment center indicates that no bug has been spotted this month and confirmed these figures. For the operator, the magnitude of the fall in category A is explained primarily by a switch to categories B and C.

In its press release, the Ministry of work evokes either him no evidence calling into perspective the decline posted. Rather, it points out that this decline “is the result of the gradual improvement in economic activity that has already led to a recovery in job creation in 2015, thanks to the effects of the Covenant of responsibility and solidarity “ There also see the first effects of using” Employing SMEs’, “ramping up and accelerates the effects of the economic recovery: a total of 225,000 aid applications since January “. However, it is too early to see the effects of the announced doubling of the year the number of unemployed in training, the deployment is just beginning.