London – UK: growth slows, warnings about a Brexit – L’Express

The gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom slowed to 0.4% in first quarter 2016 compared to the previous, announced the Office of National Statistics (ONS) UK.

These figures are in line with expectations of economists, followed a 0.6% growth that had been recorded in the fourth quarter of 2015.

This slowdown is particularly the result of a poor performance of the manufacturing and construction, that did not offset the good performance of the dominant sector of services.

With the approach of the referendum of 23 June on the country’s membership to the European Union (EU), economists are divided on the possible impact that may have the organization that voting – and its attendant uncertainties – on the economy in the first quarter.

“ Concerns over a Brexit probably played a role in slowing the first quarter and will probably weigh more on growth in the second quarter ,” said Samuel Tombs, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

“ The lazy assumption is that the slowdown in growth is associated with the uncertainty regarding the Brexit. We think it is premature ” retorted Alan Clarke at Scotiabank .

The finance minister George Osborne, who campaigned as a majority government for maintenance in the EU, however, did not fail to use the economic argument in the campaign in less than two months the poll.

“ The UK continues to grow but the OECD warned today that the threat of a vote in favor of starting EU weighs on economy , “he said on Twitter.

– “ A major negative shock ” –

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has in fact warned Wednesday that “ the uncertainty has already begun to have a negative impact on the economy . ”

In a report presented in London, the OECD also believes that in the future a Brexit “ would lead to a major negative shock to the economy and would have implications for all members OECD, especially in Europe . ”

“ Our conclusion is clear. The UK is much stronger in Europe and Europe is much stronger with the UK as motor “summed Angel Gurría, secretary general of the organization, in a speech.

According to OECD calculations, GDP would be 3% lower by 2020 if the EU’s output compared to the scenario of a continuation in the Union. This would amount to an average cost of 2,250 pounds (2,900 euros) by British home.

Over time, the shortfall will widen again: in 2030, GDP would be lower than 5% compared to the status quo and households would be deprived of 3,200 books. This could even be worse, according to a more pessimistic scenario.

In the short term, the economy “ would be affected by the tightening of financial conditions and weakening confidence ” and “ by raising barriers to exchanges and early consequences of limitations to the mobility of labor , “said the OECD. In the longer term, the effect would be felt in the capital, immigration and less technical progress.

These warnings similar to those of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or the alarmist predictions recently released by the UK Treasury. The camp maintenance also received unequivocal support from President Barack Obama during a visit to London.

But the camp Brexit if he loses a little ground in the polls, leaves not shoot either.

Nigel Farage, party leader Europhobic Ukip, quipped “ the IMF, the OECD, a number of international organizations filled with overpaid people who mostly failed in their career policy . ”