Investors, oil companies, economists … all dream of a rise in oil prices. Which can only come from a limitation of production or consumption boom. The second solution is not in the agenda, their hope to increase can only come from a political agreement between producers. These are found on April 17 in Doha, capital of Qatar.
Oil prices have collapsed since mid-2014, from a peak of $ 115 to a low of $ 27 per barrel, the price collapse has a single cause, according to the international Energy Agency, the world produces more than it consumes and this is, apparently, not finished.
prices rose to 45 dollars 2016
classes are raised recently around $ 40 (or even 45 dollars) with an accelerated decline in US production and the prospect of a meeting between members or not producers of OPEC, April 17 in Doha, and that could lead to a freeze plan of world production.
The scenario of the decline is unknown. It has as much to the decline in consumption, particularly due to the decline of China’s growth, as the decision of Saudi Arabia to produce a maximum drawing on its reserves to limit competition. The result was immediate, crude prices have collapsed with the consequences of budget crises in all producing countries and cascading fallout in consumer countries. The latter, after a temporary appreciation for this purchasing power gain, began to fear for investment – particularly in the oil sector -. And have concerns about the return of deflation
Today, observers are divided into two camps, pessimists who see no short-term lift in crude and optimistic that bet on rising prices.
in the pessimistic camp, we find the IEA (international Energy Agency). An agreement on the freezing of oil production among OPEC and outside OPEC will have limited impact on the global supply and markets should not regain their balance before 2017, takes the view Agency. “ Given that Saudi Arabia and Russia are already producing at record rates almost and there is very little potential to increase if Iran, any agreement will have no significant impact on balance between supply and global demand in the first half 2016 , “added the organization.
side” good news “” there are signs that the decline of shale oil production in the US is accelerating (would have decreased by 6% since the beginning of the year). In early April, the number of wells (operating) had fallen by almost 80% from its peak in October 2014 and one sees new evidence of the financial difficulties faced by the pioneers (and gas oil) shale , “notes the IEA. Still at good news, the return of Iran on the market has been more measured than some expected after the lifting of sanctions in January.
So why the price of oil he goes back?
What makes the price of oil? “The demand, supply, geopolitics and speculation ” coldly says Marie Viennot on France Culture. It is true that for any new market is up for grabs. And gambling on stocks, coupled with speculation, can vary greatly course, even if no real information does not change the situation.
Exactly, world stocks are at maximum (which should drive down prices), but their growth is lower (which brought up the course) … in the end, the huge amounts of stored crude in recent months in anticipation of a rise in prices will weigh on the market, Spencer Dale analysis, BP’s chief economist. At best, stock abundance will make prices rise very slowly
Philippe Crouzet, the head of Vallourec, para-oil company, is in her optimism. “ Prices low rates reflect an excess of starting to narrow. Production began to decline in the United States and this movement will grow next year. A rebound is underway and could manifest end of 2016 or early 2017 (…) then production should start. “The issue is important since only a rebound in prices may allow recovery of investment in the sector. Now, if the sector does not invest, oil could miss knowing that “ well production declines 5 to 6% per year “, he said.
Russians and Saudis agree
on the market side, it also plays the rise in prices. “ The bear market is behind us , confirmed the boss of the Genevan trader Gunvor, Torbjörn Tornqvist. The question is when, not if, the rebalancing of the market will take place “While optimism for the leader of the Russian company Rosneft, Igor Setchin. ” The market will inevitably become more stable, but it will take time , “he said. According to him, the excess supply should subside by mid-2016, because of the drying up of investment.
Result: the markets are rising. A big fund manager suddenly decided to stake everything on oil stocks believing that the fall in prices is not related to overproduction but to a price war. And “ a price war may stop suddenly, as soon as its principal author will decide ” notes financial.
Meeting in Switzerland on April 11, the commodity traders predict a barrel to 50 dollars by next year, and even 80 dollars in 2017, reports Bloomberg.
The Russians and Saudis would agree to freeze their production levels. In this context, the Doha meeting could be decisive. “If Saudi Arabia accepts the agreement, it will be an important factor of price support” , said Francis Perrin, President of Strategies and Policies energy, quoted by Les Echos . But nothing says that the meeting leads to an agreement capable of impacting production. In which case prices could start falling …
No comments:
Post a Comment