the President of the Fed, Janet Yellen, June 15, 2016 in Washington (AFP / YURI GRIPAS)
the government released Friday at 1230 GMT job creation and the unemployment rate for August, numbers that have the attention of financial markets who question the intentions of the central bank.
After two months of strong push over 250,000 job creations projected at 180,000 in August, according to the median forecast of analysts, which is more than enough to maintain and make lower the unemployment rate.
this should lose a tenth of a percentage point to 4.8%, say economists.
the Vice President Stanley Fischer Fed warned last week that the report on employment, a very important indicators of the last before the next meeting of the monetary Committee of the Fed (FOMC) on 20 and 21 September “would have a weight” in the decision tighten or not monetary policy.
Paul Ashworth, chief economist for Capital Economics, “though job creation has still climbed 250,000 or more, as they did in June and July, while a rate hike in September becomes a real possibility. ”
The owner of the World Bank Janet Yellen acknowledged last week in Jackson Hole that the US economy “approaching” its objectives “maximum employment and price stability” and that a gradual rise in rates was still valid even if growth remained sluggish.
But the employment figures of August traditionally hold surprises. “The statistics still August tend to take the side to markets,” says Joseph LaVorgna, economist at Deutsche Bank Research, which expects only 160,000 new jobs.
Overall, a settlement new hires should not surprise anyone, economists agreeing that the frantic pace of June and July is not sustainable.
solid hiring in the private
the survey of the iT services firm ADP released to businesses Wednesday, which focuses on the private sector alone, estimated the number of hires last month to 177,000, a solid figure better than expected, even if it presents a step back from the 194,000 in July.
The manufacturing sector is still at half mast, having continued to destroy 6,000 jobs, but the service is in top form, 183,000 additional jobs.
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, which compiles data from the ADP survey, “the American machine of job creation continues to roar. The economy of the United States will soon reach full employment “.
But the job is not the sole mandate of the Fed primary concern is to price stability it is for now too low. inflation slowed further in July to 0.8%, according to the PCE index, below the target of 2% of the Fed. That still plead for patience.
the central bank since the financial crisis tightened its monetary policy only once in December 2015, has recently stopped pushing further monetary tightening in the face of slowing growth in China and facing the Brexit risk.
“As for the Fed, anything is possible, but it is difficult to say whether they will act,” said Joel Naroff, independent economist. “I find that they should act. The economy is strong enough, “he said.
But in the markets, financial actors are very divided. At the sight of the futures markets, a rate hike seems more likely in December, after the elections in early November that in three weeks.
the central bank that claims not to be influenced by the political situation might want to prove his independence by acting soon on 21 September. the monetary Committee “considers the economic data” above all “we are not political forecasters,” said Stanley Fischer recently
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