The real effects of the policy “pro-business” Holland – Challenges.fr

Ironically, this is a former adviser to the Minister of Productive Recovery Arnaud Montebourg at Bercy who delivered this Monday, September 5 a first five-year economic diagnostic Francois Hollande. Xavier Ragot, became president of the institute OFCE economic situation, gives a mixed assessment of four years of economic policy and restores luster to the anti-austerity line defended his former boss at Bercy. “The impact of tax hikes made early warrant has been underestimated by the government, he analyzes. The scale of the fiscal shock was not consistent with a decline in unemployment in the first half of the mandate. ” Fiscal tightening leaded French growth of 0.8 points per year on average, according to the institute, of course with negative effects on employment

figures compiled by researchers at the OFCE reveal the political” pro-business “conducted by Ayrault and Valls governments. Between 2012 and 2017, are some 42.6 billion euros of additional taxes that were imposed on the French, including 27.1 billion decided by François Hollande and 15.5 billion inherited from the Sarkozy presidency. After a first series of increases that have affected both households and businesses, seconds benefited fully from the famous “supply policy” from 2014 billion tax credit Competitiveness (CICE) and responsibility pact thus more than offsetting the increase in the beginning of five-year levy. In five years, companies have seen their tax reduced by 20.6 billion, while households have suffered 35 billion increase.

Problem, results on the employment front

” to justify its policy, the government has communicated primarily on the fight against unemployment, observes Xavier Ragot But in reality, he had two goals:. the reduction of public deficits and improving business competitiveness. ” Three goals difficult to reconcile according to economist … In fact, in four years, corporate margins resumed beautiful colors under the impact of social security contributions and cuts in oil prices. In industry, the margin rate has even returned to his records of the early 2000s and the investment side off again since 2015. Public Accounts, deficits have steadily declined from 4.8% to 3.3% of national wealth in four years.

Problem, results on the employment front, they are waiting is cruelly. “Throughout the five-year, unemployment according to the ILO would increase by 100,000 people despite 720,000 job creations,” provides the OFCE. Job creation in the market sector will exceed the job cuts until 2017. Either four years after the announcement of the reversal of the unemployment curve by François Hollande … Worse, the sub employment has increased considerably in four years. By adding the unemployed, part-timers and experienced non-registered unemployed, nearly 6 million people suffering from unemployment, or 8% more than four years ago (440,000 people).

overall, the economic policy decided under François Hollande eventually bear fruit for businesses and the balance of public accounts, but at the expense of the portfolio of French and therefore short-term growth. “France 2017 should be in a more positive economic momentum in 2012, but economists concede OFCE, even if the fragile recovery must not overshadow the continuing difficulties of foreign trade in terms of countries and unemployment “. Clearly, that’s better, but it is not yet won …