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And so, really, it was better? It is hollow, that seem to mean the economists of the French Economic Observatory (OFCE) in the balance sheet they stand Monday, September 5 the five year term of Francois Hollande. For the research institute rather rated at left center, “it is clear that France is showing signs of recovery in recent months, despite high unemployment and public finances difficulty finding the way to the balance “
the lighting. the” feeling better “Hollande gets thick
A less one year of the presidential election, while candidates for primary multiply both sides, this state of affairs is probably the first of a long list. With, the key, a central question: Does the President Hollande to its promises? Is it legitimate to seek a second term? While many economists still are working on the subject, policies have already started to draw their conclusions. “S i you want to succeed, we can not do things by half and unfortunately we did a lot of things by halves! “, and blamed, about his time in government, the former economy minister Emmanuel Macron, who resigned Tuesday 30 August, in the Sunday newspaper of 4 September.
“A cost recovery but real ”
the record establishes that the OFCE, it is rather positive but very mixed. “An expensive but real recovery” , sums up the institute in his note. While the five-year period opened “in an economic context of the worst: rising unemployment, public finances deteriorated, growth at half mast and European crisis” . However, if the French growth was rather better than that of its neighbors between 2008 and 2012, it has since, until mid-2015, lagged behind Germany and catch up eurozone. For OFCE, “This result is largely the effect of tax transfers from households to companies that have dampened growth in the short term” .
France-Germany: the wide divergence
in the balance sheet it has under five years, the French economic Observatory highlights the divergence between stronger and stronger the French and German economies, not just in terms of growth. While public debt levels were similar between the two countries in 2010 (81% of GDP), it has since gained 15 points in France and fell 10 points in Germany. The unemployment rate rises to 9.6% in France, against 4.2% in Germany, where wages are rising again after twenty years of moderation. With an increase of 0.7 percentage points of GDP since 2012, labor compensation in Germany is now similar to that underway in France. Over the same period, it fell by 1 point.
The second part of the five-year mark a beginning of recovery “through the first positive effects of supply and policies relief of fiscal consolidation “. Fiscal consolidation initiated in 2012 to restore public finances has indeed had a negative impact on growth of 0.8 points per year on average. However, against the oil shock and the first effects of the tax credit for Competitiveness and Employment (CICE) and the responsibility Pact have had a positive impact for businesses.
According to OFCE, these combined factors have had a negative impact of 5% of GDP over the first four years in office.
“competitiveness and support policies companies have weak effects in the short term and long term important [five years], while tax hikes policies have important short-term effects to decrease gradually, seen the body. This difference in temporality explains that positive results are obtained at the end of term. “
And more so in the next.
Significant increase in compulsory levies
Despite the unfavorable conditions, the recovery of public finances has been significant: the french structural balance improved by 2.5 points between 2012 and 2016, while pushing the end of the five-year goal to iron under the 3% threshold of gross domestic product (GDP) government deficit. This fiscal adjustment was made to the price during the first five-year period, a significant increase in compulsory levies, while the second part began receding and focused on controlling public expenditure.
Between 2012 and 2013, and are 52 billion euros of tax measures that have affected households, two-thirds, and business, up to a third of which 15.5 billion were decided by the previous majority. In total, according to calculations by the OFCE, throughout the five-year period, the companies received 20.6 billion euros of cuts in the tax burden, while households have seen their increase of 35 billion.
Read also: Taxes: the exaggerated optimism of Michel Sapin
mixed results in unemployment
L reversal of the unemployment curve was the main issue of the mandate of Mr. Holland. In this regard, the picture is rather mixed. Certainly, despite the headwinds faced by the French economy since 2012, the unemployment rate has stabilized in recent months. Still, in April 2017, despite the 720,000 jobs created over the period, the number of unemployed has increased by 100,000 people in total, as defined by the International Labour Office (ILO), predict economists OFCE .
But this figure is a low estimate. If we add those underemployed and those who want to work but classified as inactive by INSEE, 6 million individuals in total are now weakened vis-à-vis employment, or 440,000 people over there four years.
the CICE and responsibility Pact will have created or saved 230,000 jobs by 2017
What progress of the various devices meant promoting employment, by lower labor costs or through subsidized jobs? They slowed the rise in unemployment. The CICE, which offers reductions of charges on salaries up to 2.5 SMIC, and the responsibility Pact will have created or saved 230,000 jobs by 2017. In early 2016, 113,000 assisted contracts have been signed but 57 000 generation contracts only. A little disappointing, judge OFCE. Finally, 500,000 unemployed training plan announced earlier this year should be “limited effect, because of the risk of substitution between trained and untrained.”
Read also: the CICE, a device too complex and poorly targeted
also, “2012 to 2016, France is, with Spain, the country that experienced the strongest adjustment on its payroll, “ shows the OFCE. The reason ? The supply-side policies focused on lower labor costs, mainly. Under the effect of the IECC and responsibility Pact, the share of labor compensation in GDP fell by 1 point from the second quarter 2012 and early 2016. The bad news is that the purchasing power of households has suffered: it is always less than 350 euros at its 2010 level, at the beginning of austerity policies
Read also:. employment finally benefited from the recovery economic in France
the rate of margin businesses rose
however, companies have rebuilt their margins. It is probably in this area – one where we least expected – that the balance of the mandate of François Hollande is the most positive. As he slowly eroding for nearly ten years, the rate of margin businesses increased by two points in value added since 2012. “In industry, the margin reached a comparable level historical records of the early 2000s, “ emphasize economists of the observatory. If he continues to dive in construction, investment finally recovers in the industry, and this is encouraging.
The market shares tricolor companies International have improved somewhat since mid-2014
in other words:. our SMEs have regained competitiveness. But this is not only due to tax measures in their favor. The decline of the euro and oil prices also played. Market shares tricolor companies abroad have improved somewhat since mid-2014, while they deteriorated since 2000. What slow deindustrialization plaguing France, but not stop it.
the OFCE concludes that “France 2017 should be in a more positive economic momentum in 2012, although the fragile recovery must not overshadow the continuing difficulties of foreign trade of countries in terms and unemployment “. A report ultimately not as dark as unwilling describe those who, right and left, aspire to succeed Mr. Holland. And could finally reap the benefits of the policy work setting during this five-year
Read also:. Before the ambassadors, Hollande raises its international balance sheet
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