Paris, 12 August 2016 – Employment remains dynamic despite a halt in growth – L’Express

In one year, the French economy has created, net, 143.300 new jobs (+ 0.9%), for a total of 16.04 million, a level unprecedented since early 2012, according to an estimate of the INSEE published Friday. This indicator is mainly the salaried positions non-agricultural private sector.

“ For the fifth consecutive quarter, our economy has created merchants salaried jobs “, welcomed the Minister of Labour, Myriam El Khomri in a tweet. The dynamic is however weaker than in previous quarters, when about 40,000 jobs were created on average.

From April to June, only the services have created jobs (excluding temporary 37,800, + 0.3%). The sector, main locomotive in private employment, has increased steadily since the end of 2014.

These creations than offset further destruction in industry (9700, -0.3%) and construction (3500, -0.3%), lasting two affected areas. Factories have lost nearly a million jobs since the second quarter of 2001, the yards around 200,000 since the end of 2008.

As for temporary employment, which peaked late 2015, s ‘fell slightly in the quarter, with 500 jobs lost (-0.1%). He had already destroyed 1,000 in Q1. The interim nevertheless remains largely in the green on year, with 35,500 additional posts (+ 6.5%).

Over the past year, the tertiary excluding temporary positions increased by 155,100 (+ 1.4%), while industry and construction lost 33,900 respectively (-1.1%) and 13,400 (-1.0%).

– Get in the interim –

The positive employment figures for the quarter are against the current of other economic indicators: growth has experienced a setback (+ 0%), hirings fell (-2.2%) and falling unemployment paused (-0.2% after -1.4% in Q1).

There is nothing illogical, however, as employment usually reacts to growth with a delay of several quarters.

Q2 job creations are, in addition, comply with the latest forecasts from INSEE, published in mid-June, which had forecast 28,000. Final figures will be published on 8 September.

However, the decline in temporary employment over the first half of 2016 can be interpreted as a warning signal, as this area is known precursor of changes in employment.

But according to economists, the pause recorded by many indicators in the 2nd quarter is only a “ Adjustment ” a “ movement patch “after an exceptional first quarter. The Bank of France also provides for a 0.3% rebound in growth in the third quarter.

The National Statistics Institute was waiting in its June forecast, a further acceleration in job creation in the second half, supposed to allow a significant decline in unemployment to 9.5% end of 2016 in France , against 9.9% earlier this year.

Such a scenario would make the business of Francois Hollande, who has conditioned a decrease “ credible ” unemployment in 2016 his possible candidacy for a second term. The president must announce its decision at the end of the year.