Le Monde | • Updated | By
terrible symbol: Eurogroup last chance, held Saturday, June 27 in Brussels, made a suspension session in the late afternoon. It was supposed to validate an agreement “reforms against new money,” absolutely necessary to avoid the failure of the Greek state. Its president, the finance minister of the Netherlands Jeroen Dijsselbloem, descended in the press room, and serious, announced that negotiations with the Greek government had been broken, despite the offer “complete” and the willingness of creditors of Greece.
He also announced that the finance ministers would resume their conversation, to talk about “plan B” … But without their Greek colleague, Yanis Varoufakis . As if there in no time, Greece had, with the surprise announcement of the referendum the previous day by Tsipras already signed its exit from the euro area
Read:. The Eurogroup refuses to extend the aid plan for Greece
Preserving the banking system of bankruptcy
Plan B, then. The 18 ministers of euro zone finance must decide what action to take for “ensure the stability of the euro area” said Mr. Dijsselbloem. For the hour is serious: we must first protect the Greek banking system from bankruptcy while capital outflows, already considerable in recent days, reached 600 million euros in one Saturday morning
To do so, we should introduce capital controls, possibly as early as Monday, June 29, in Athens. But this decision is ultimately the Greek government. Did he want? Reportedly, members of the Greek government were persuaded by this weekend, that capital controls would be good for the popularity of Tsipras would strengthen the feeling that he is a victim of the fury of the creditors, the IMF, the ECB, the rest of the Eurozone.
The decision to limit capital outflows, inevitable in the short term, is not considered a light heart in Brussels, where it is feared it does not work well enough to avoid a Greek exit, progressive, the euro area. “It worked for Cyprus, which is an island, which is smaller, but Greece has borders and it will be more difficult to contain the cash “ was alarmed a European source these days.
Asphyxia
The ECB will also have to take difficult decisions. She was to meet his conference of Governors, Sunday, June 28, to decide or not to take action on emergency liquidity to Greek banks, the now famous ELA, the only means of financing which remains the Greek banking system.
These last ten days, the Institute of Frankfurt decided three times to raise the ceiling of the ELA. But his “board”, Germans and Finns were growing pressure in recent days, that this liquidity be deleted. In the absence of agreement with Athens and the second aid plan for Greece “extinguishing” on June 30, the ECB will definitely stress, perhaps as early as Sunday evening to take this decision of asphyxiation Greek banking system.
Some in Brussels did not rule out Saturday that the SSM (the European banking supervisor), under the auspices of the ECB, also meet the “board” in the hours or coming days to assess the solvency of Greek banks. If it considers that they are at risk, it could take – instead of the Greek government. – A decision to close financial institutions
Avoiding contagion
How to prevent contagion to the rest of the Eurozone? This is what ministers discussed the format finances “19 minus 1″ Saturday night. European banks are little exposed, unlike 2009-2012, the Greek bonds. But others, Bulgaria, Romania, Cyprus, have banks that are more so, and should be able to protect. There are also all the instruments have established the Europeans following the 2008 crisis: the banking union, the European Stability Mechanism, etc.
The European Commission is ready, according to our information. to take administrative measures to prevent side effects in these countries. European leaders could also, in the coming days, communicating a strong way, to say that the Eurozone even without Greece, will be preserved, and not going to the explosion.
This is also in anticipation of this nightmare scenario that Jean-Claude Juncker, Chairman of the Committee, Donald Tusk, Chairman, and Mr. Dijsselbloem Mario Draghi for ECB had published earlier this week, their “plan “for greater integration of the Eurozone. ” Today, we must take strong measures to reassure and to prevent a new financial crisis in Europe. One example would accelerate the principle of a European guarantee deposits “ according to a European source.
Tsipras had accused person
In this context, how to avoid the political explosion? The various Eurozone leaders were careful Saturday to tell how they had done everything to help Greece, and nobody around the Eurogroup table, did not want the exit of Greece from the area euro. “ What happened today, this is not the exit of Greece from the euro area ” assured Michel Sapin, French finance minister, while Paris has worked up at the end to the “hyphen” between the Eurogroup and Tsipras government. “ We made an offer with flexibilities and compromises, the Tsipras government decided to reject it and sent a negative message to the Greeks about this offer [calling for a referendum on an agreement it considers unacceptable], “for its part, insisted Mr. Dijsselbloem.
The European Commission has indeed worked through until Friday 26 June, to achieve an agreement with Athens. The differences between the parties were very low, according to several sources close to the talks. One of them says:
“ The worst part is that the Greek negotiators were locked at the Charlemagne [one of the Commission buildings] Friday night, learned the decision of the referendum in conjunction with the creditors side negotiators. “
Jean-Claude Juncker himself, who had spent hours with Alexis Tsipras during the week to try to find a solution, référenfum has learned that when he woke.
Read: Tsipras will submit the aid plan for Greece to a referendum
“Irresponsibility”
off, many in Brussels denounced Saturday the “irresponsibility” this call the referendum. “What question will we ask the Greeks? If creditors accept the plan? But where will we submit? None had been approved by the Eurogroup, it was still a text starts, which compromises were negotiated, “ says a source close to the negotiations. ” In addition, person unless be subject expert can really understand them anything, they are very technical documents. ”
Another source was moved that “Friday, there was a council of heads of state and government from Europe and Tsipras did not tell anyone what he intended to do. Not even Hollande and Merkel “. Indeed, Michel Sapin confirmed at a press briefing on Saturday: the president was warned before the referendum on Friday evening but
A note of hope. Saturday night in Brussels? “The only thing we can hope to avoid the worst is that the Greek Parliament decided to stop the referendum or the Greek government to reverse its decision and, by next Tuesday we do a new proposal acceptable agreement “ explained relatives of creditors.
Pierre Moscovici, European Commissioner for Economic affair, ” If the finance ministers did not grant extension of the aid plan for the Eurogroup, that’s because the Greek government has accompanied the announcement of a call referendum vote no. But the euro zone still has 19 members and not 18, Greece is one of them. The commission will fight to the end to keep it. “
No one was capable of guaranteeing Saturday night that we would be able to control the political, economic, geopolitical or even in the days and weeks to come.
Read: The lesson of Dominique Strauss-Kahn on the Greek crisis
No comments:
Post a Comment