Le Monde | | By
Those who still believed an agreement could be found to the Eurogroup of Monday, May 11, paving the way to payment a final tranche (€ 7.2 billion) to Greece, will inevitably be disappointed. This meeting has given birth only a very diplomatic statement of the 19 finance ministers of the eurozone, is “Welcoming” “progress recognized “ in the negotiation but noting that ” more time and effort are necessary “ for each other.
However, the Eurogroup had its usefulness. He had the merit of showing that an agreement between Athens and its international creditors (EU, ECB, IMF) is now possible. It had nothing obvious there are three months, when talks began between the government Tsipras, who promised his voters to end austerity, and the rest of the Eurogroup, dominated by leaders conservatives and social democrats, not willing to make concessions that would feed their internal oppositions …
Tsipras more involved
In fact, discussions finally progressing pretty well. Over the period – from early February to late March – during which Athens and its creditors have played cat and mouse, quibbling on stories procedures. Who was to represent the creditors to the discussion table? Where the talks were to be held: in Athens, Paris
When everyone finally entered the thick of it in early April, discussions skated because of a messy Greek team and not clearly motivated by the search for an agreement. The teams have been redesigned, the finance minister, the controversial Yanis Varoufakis, marginalized, Premier Tsipras has however involved more and more directly. At the point that “Today, we have an operating mode that is not a panacea but is progressing well” emphasized Monday the European Commissioner for Economic Pierre Moscovici
Read (subscribers edition). Yanis Varoufakis, the “rock star” that annoys Brussels
The Eurogroup of 11 May act as the that the extreme animosity climate – very very conducive to a compromise – which had peaked at the Eurogroup previous (April 24, Riga), has been overcome. At this meeting, Mr. Varoufakis found himself completely isolated face 18 other ministers on edge. Monday evening, in Brussels, the great Greek silversmith, willingly give lessons, showed discreet. “He just tried to change the margin to the statement which had been prepared in advance, but he was stopped by Wolfgang Schäuble flatly” provides close to the discussions.
The scenario of a Grexit away
The suggestion made by the German Minister, just before entering the Eurogroup, a referendum on the reforms in Greece would be a good idea, not at all been discussed with peers, the source said. They had no desire at all addressing the subject, giving the impression of interfering in the affairs of Athens
The statement Monday, also intended to reassure the markets.: the scenario of a Grexit away, especially as Greece confirmed Monday that it would pay out the next day, Tuesday, May 12, the € 770 million owed to the IMF. Likely, too, that the ECB will continue to raise the ceiling of ELA (emergency liquidity assistance), this emergency funding it still provides to Greek banks.
When the agreement he will intervene ? In the absence of large repayment schedule before July, Athens and its creditors now have seven good weeks ahead. It’s probably not too much to reconcile points of view, still very divergent, the list of reforms that the Greeks must provide.
“Two weeks” cash
The Tsipras government defends a proposed balanced budget in 2015 thanks to greater tax revenues (including the introduction of VAT on purchases of tourists in the Greek islands). The IMF disputes the level of these tax revenues and requires further liberalization of the labor market and pension reform, the current system was deemed too expensive. “On these two issues, Tsipras will have no agreement if it does not compromise “ considered a European source close to the talks on Monday
Time is short. Athens more procrastinating, the more its economic situation deteriorates, making it even more difficult its negotiating position … For 2015, the European Commission now expects a general government deficit of 2.1% of GDP, while Greece had a small surplus in 2014. “ Greece may be short of cash of two weeks, everyone knows, it’s not worth beating around the bush “ said for his part Mr. Varoufakis Monday.
A signature by the end of May? Not impossible for the most optimistic of creditors. This would also have a big month – by the end of June, the date of expiry of the current aid scheme for Greece – to negotiate a new support plan (the third) and relief the country’s debt (340 billion euros). Discussion “no taboo” as told to “World” the President of the Eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Thursday, May 7
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