Michel Sapin today enjoys one of its best days since he took the austere function great financier of French public accounts. Wednesday, May 13, INSEE has made him the first good news in the first quarter, growth French jumped 0.6%, much stronger than expected. Better -once coutume- is not, on these first 3 months of 2015, the France goes far beyond Germany and solid dynamics England, both face an unexpected slowdown at 0.3%!
As long dreamed called, announced even too often too hastily by the government, growth is finally back. The Minister of Finance does not sulk his pleasure: “This is very encouraging. Our growth prospects for 2015 are clearly reinforced today “, has he rejoiced, even going so far as to suggest that the forecast of 1% on which the government drafted the budget is a “floor” and might be exceeded.
European Satisfecit
This afternoon, second good news: the European Commission, which published today its economic recommendations for each country, addresses a good report to the government. “I greet the French authorities for their commitment to reform and the measures taken to ensure the sustainability of public finances and bring the deficit below 3% by 2017″ , told Vice-President of the Commission, the Latvian Valdis Dombrovskis … the more biting was known about the French economic performance.
The European favor reversal is spectacular when we remember how Paris had to fight for 9 months against Brussels inflexible orthodoxy to justify euro per euro, its request to extend the deadline for achieving the 3%. It is explained by the renewed growth scenario that lends credibility, already strengthened by the publication of a public deficit less worse than expected end 2014 (to 4% of GDP). Still, the head of Bercy, in first line on the European front, drinks whey. “I noticed that the climate in Brussels has become much more friendly,” has fun there.
Disaster Areas
However, Fir must avoid resting on its laurels. A good quarter is not enough to ensure the trumpet and relaunch growth. In 2013, after a second quarter to 0.7%, the soufflé had fallen. Moreover, INSEE provides for “only” 0.3% in the second quarter. Especially since, if we look closely, the recovery remains fragile. She took full of very favorable “planetary alignment” -chute of the euro, the price of oil and rate intérêt- which could only be ephemeral. And she is nourished rather exclusively by the acceleration of household consumption. The construction sector is still resolutely damaged. The investment, the engine of sustainable growth, employment and most remain at half-mast, even if these indicators could improve after 2 or 3 quarters of recovery in activity.
As for the Commission, it has not fully released surveillance. Certainly there is no question of sanctions, but European partners do not want France takes advantage of cyclical winds carrying to abandon structural reforms. Dombrovskis cites the continuing reform of the labor market, simplification of efforts to support competitiveness and improving the tax system. The Commission has yet to give its final opinion on June 10
Gaëlle Macke for ChallengeSoir
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