Global GDP is expected to grow 3.3% this year, instead of the 3.5% envisaged in April. And paradoxically it is neither the Greek nor the collapse of Chinese interrogations at issue.
The International Monetary Fund has revised down slightly its growth forecast for the whole of the global economy, the 189 member countries of the international organization. This modest revision of 0.2 percentage points in 2015 compared to the scenario described last April during the spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, affects mainly Anglo-Saxon countries, the US in the lead, and Brazil and Mexico.
In contrast the euro area, which is currently the focus of discussions with the disaster of Greece retain his forecasts, a growth of 1.5% this year and 1.7 % in 2016 (0.1 percentage point higher than the figure put forward in April). Nothing changed for France whose growth prospects are still lagging behind the euro area as a whole, the French GDP to rise by 1.2% in 2015 and 1.5% the following year.
Similarly China, which currently cause for concern after the collapse of 30% within one month of the Shanghai Stock Exchange has not led the IMF to change its growth projections that reach respectively 6 , 8% and 6.3% for both years. By cons, Brazil is sinking into recession, with a GDP decline of 1.5% in 2015 (instead of a 1% decline originally scheduled). Similarly, Mexico’s growth rate was revised down 0.6% while remaining largely positive (3% this year). Conversely Russia would be a little less badly off than expected, the decline of its economy is limited to 3.4% (instead of 3.8%) in 2015, with the hope to grow again in 2016.
No challenge to the dynamism of the US economy
For the United States, whose GDP is expected to increase by only 2.5% instead of 3% in 2015 The only explanation given the downward revision concerns extremely cold weather in the first quarter, although this phenomenon is becoming a habit. This hazard should in any event not question the dynamism of the US economy, “wage growth, conditions in the labor markets, ease financial conditions and strengthen the property market”, these favorable factors “remain intact”.
The diagnosis is also reassuring “for the euro zone, the economic recovery is on track”; and even the IMF says it has revised upward its figures for several countries in the European Monetary Union, including Spain and Italy. Washington experts are happy to note that in Greece “ongoing developments are likely to operate a heavy toll on economic activity from initial expectations.” Last April the IMF predicted growth rates of 2.5% and 3.7% respectively in 2015 and 2016 to Athens.
The eurozone without Greece
Besides international economists seem to consider now the “eurozone without Greece” (“excluding Greece” in the text): it is in any case the term they use to describe the rise of “about 80 basis points “interest rates to ten years on average since April in the countries of the euro area. For it would certainly have been insignificant taking into account the soaring rates in Greece that are quite extraordinary, beyond the 15%. For its part, the rise in market rates in Europe is considered a simple “correction” after probably excessive rate cuts that accompanied the first quarter the announcement of “quantitative easing” of the ECB.
Looking at the uncertainties of its own economic forecast, the IMF listed among the “upside risks” the recent easing in oil prices which is a favorable factor for consumption in developed countries. Unlike the experts highlight the difficulties arising as a further rise in the US currency for countries’ debt in dollars, particularly some emerging countries. “
Last but not least, the IMF says two specific uncertainty factors. On the one hand “the biggest challenges faced by China in its transition to a new growth model”. And secondly “geopolitical tensions increased in Ukraine, the Middle East and parts of Africa.”
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