“terms for negotiations on a new assistance program” are not met Angela Merkel made known after the victory of “no” to the Greek referendum. Since the start of negotiations, “the new Iron Lady” juggles the demands of the Greek people and the requirements of its parliament. Claire Demesmay, political scientist and head of the Franco-German program at the German Institute for Foreign Policy (DGAP), gives us his analysis on why the German intransigence. Interview.
The intransigence of Angela Merkel is it due to economic risks run Germany? What will be the consequences of not on the German economy
– Failure of the Greeks has no direct impact on German economy. Today, the concern is at another level. The Germans are questioning the effects of this non-euro area. If the Greeks refuse to make efforts, while other States will lift the foot in turn. And the idea of the Chancellor and Germans, is to put enough pressure on all countries to respect and all are subject to the same rules for the smooth functioning of the euro area.
What is at stake in the Greek case to the German Chancellor? What does risk?
– You should know that the next elections in 2017 are therefore to that side, there is no real worries to do. However, two important factors must be taken into consideration: what is happening on the domestic political scene and what happens on the foreign policy stage.
First, there is the part of the Germans a growing movement dissatisfaction and hostility towards the Greek people so that today the majority of Germans for a Greek exit from the euro zone according to polls. The tone rises and this is especially true within his party, the Christian Democrats.
Secondly, in Germany, as in other European countries, decisions on financing plans must be approved by Parliament -here the Bundestag- and other negotiations with Greece would undermine the position of Merkel internally since even if it holds the majority of seats in the Bundestag, fewer and fewer members are willing to make concessions.
Furthermore, concerning foreign policy scene Merkel is not alone and people tend to forget. She is the spokesperson for countries such as Slovakia, the UK or Austria in favor of more firmness.
What can -on expect the resumption of negotiations? What leeway holds Angela Merkel today
– For the moment, no one can tell. The negotiations should continue, but one thing is certain, Angela Merkel will remain firm. It must remain cautious and conciliatory to maintain the support of his party but do not want the Grexit provided. She does not want to appear as one that will make the decision as a last resort. This is a joint decision and the strong men of Europe as Hollande and Mario Draghi should be involved
What future can hope to Greece? What would be the consequences of a Grexit for Germany and France
– We are not now in an economic decision but a political type of decision and the future of Greece depends on many factors:
- the attitude of Alexis Tsipras has lost the confidence of its European partners
- the positioning of the ECB
- of the atmosphere in the institutions
Will we continue to engage on the path of provocation or so will do we negotiate together to find a real solution that would allow Greece to remain in the euro zone? In fact, it is a game of interests and many influences.
As for the consequences of a Grexit on the countries of the European Union, they could be disastrous. Some fear a domino effect that would lead to a collapse of the eurozone. The exit of Greece would also call on the carpet the issue of the release of the UK. And political issues should be studied on a new configuration of the European Union (EU) does not provide for any such scenario. Shall we go to a historic EU disintegration? Anyway, all these options are on the table today.
Interview by Armelle Sae-Jeanne
No comments:
Post a Comment